Foreign Direct Investment
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
The most complex internationalization strategy by which the firm establishes a physical presence abroad through direct ownership of productive assets (such as capital, technology, labor, land, manufacturing plant, and equipment). Foreign direct investment occurs when an individual or a business invests in an across-border enterprise and holds a minimum 10% of the capital or voting power, so FDI is riskier, more expensive and less flexible than other entry strategies, but offers greater control. [2]
Video introduction about the basic of FDI and the basic motivations by the YouTube channel Mike Moore (GWU econ professor) here.
Image 1: MAPPED: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BY COUTNRY
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-foreign-direct-investment-by-country/
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI)
If the investing entity owns less than that minimum percentage, like passive ownership or small stock investments made by the average investors, this type of investment is known as foreign portfolio investment (FPI). [10] It's a popular way of investing in a cross-border economy - investors hold security and other financial assets where they are not provided with direct ownership as the investors have no stake in a company or hold less than 10% of the capital. FPI holdings may include stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or exchange traded funds. This allows investors a quicker return on their investment, greater liquidity if needed when compared to an FDI. However, the investors do not actively participate in the management of an enterprise, being content with receiving dividends, and therefore, have no control over the company they decided to invest in. [54]
COMPONENTS OF FDI
FDI has three key components:
Equity capital
Reinvested earnings
Intra-company loans [10]
Many entities are deciding to take advantage of policies for attracting FDI. These policies aim to provide investors with an environment for higher profitability business and less unnecessary risks. Some of the most important factors that should be considered by investor are predictable and non-discriminatory: regulatory environment, a stable macroeconomic environment followed with sufficient and accessible resources. The most effective actions taken by host country authorities to meet investors` expectation would be safeguarding public sector transparency, non-discrimination between foreign and domestic enterprises and international regulatory law. Further factors taken into consideration are the right of free transfers related to an investment and a healthy competitive environment in the domestic business sector. Creating a more positive environment by removing obstacles to international trade and readdressing the tax system increases the possibility for attracting FDI. [5]
Comparison FDI and FPI
When it comes to th comparison between FDI and FPI the first difference is the capital share. With FDI the company holds more then 10% of the capital and has a lot mor control. In contrast FPI applies, when the company holds less then 10 % of the capital.[54] FDI is also concentrad on a longterm partnership. In addition FDI is more active then FPI. The direct investors also act as managers of the new project in the new country. Through that they are more informed and their work is more effective. On the other side FPI doesn´t require active participation . The investors gain ownership without control of the domestic firms and delegate the decisions to the managerso on site. However, it is less efficient then FDI, because pure delegation of tasks often leads to information asymmetries and misundrstandings. [60]
Image 2: Foreign direct investmnt net inflows in the world
TYPES OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
To distinguish between the various forms of FDI, it's important to understand why companies go abroad in the first place: to serve a foreign market and/or to take advantage of geographical benefits. We can classify FDI activities by
level of integration (horizontal versus vertical)
form (greenfield versus mergers and acquisitions)
and nature of ownership (wholly owned versus joint venture). [2]
Image 3: Types of Foreign Direct Investment
https://blog.investyadnya.in/what-is-foreign-direct-investment-fdi/
Types of FDI by Level of Integration
In general the are two common types of foreign direct investment, horizontal and vertical FDI. Achieved trough it there is also an additional type, conglomerates FDI. A distinciton is made according to the production function acitivities.
Horizontal FDI
refers to a business investing funds in a foreign company that operates a similar type of business operations as in its home country.
Example:
Nestlé, which completed the acquisition of US based Lily's Kitchen in 2020, a premium natural pet food business. [16] It is referred to as “horizontal” because the investing business operates roughly the same activities in different countries. The reasoning behind horizontal FDI is mainly to lower cost inputs due to high transportation costs. [1]
This would be the case if for example BMW, a German car manufacturer, decides to invest into the construction of a manufacturing plant in the US or to invest in an already existent one. This would reduce various costs related to exportation, when trying to sell to the market in the United States by only exporting towards it.
Vertical FDI
refers to an investment made in a complementary business, but not directly in the same industry. This is the case when a business invests in a foreign company to split its production geographically. Since manufacturing prices often vary across countries, it becomes financially profitable for a firm to invest abroad and make use of location advantages. [1] Moreover, there is a further distinction within vertical FDI: backward vertical FDI and forward vertical FDI:
Backward vertical integration
A company invests in a (potential) material supplier. This would be the case if Dallmayr, a German coffee manufacturer, would look to invest into coffee bean producers in Colombia. Since the firm would be utilizing the Columbian company as a source of raw product, in this instance, coffee beans. As it could be cheaper to acquire them in Columbia rather than another country. [1]
Forward vertical integration
A company invests in a business it sells its products to and operates as “distributor”. In this case Dallmayr would look to invest into a company such as Amazon, to which it could sell its products to the local market. [1]
Conglomerate FDI
is an investment made that is unrelated to its core business, meaning there is no direct link to the investors business, unlike horizontal and vertical FDI. In general it is uncommon, bcause it has two ovrcome two barriers, entering a new country and a new market.
Example:
For instance, Target, a US retailer, may look to invest into Pfizer-BioNTech, a German biotechnology company. This would be a reasonable decision to make if Target was looking to expand and diversify into new ventures to profit from industries where growth and return on investment are larger.
Image 4: Vertical and Horizontal Foreign Direct Investments in Transition Countries
Export Platform FDI:
in a platform FDI, a business exports to a froeign country. The output from th first step is xportet to another country.
This mostly happens in low cost locations inside of free trade areas.
Example:
An example for this case would be a car manufacturer buying manufacturing plants in counry A with the purpose of exporting the cars to other countries.
Types of FDI by Form: Greenfield and Brownfield Investments
Choosing an appropriate mode of entry into new markets is an important and strategic decision for international businesses.
Greenfield Investment
refer to a company that is establishing a subsidiary across-border, building it from the ground up. This includes the acquisition of land on which new workplaces will be built and the hiring of new employees who will be trained according to the training methods of the parent company. [6]
Gives investors the opportunity to create a new organization to its own specifications.
Implies a gradual market entry.
Currently the highest groth was in South Asia and India, where the number of greenfield investments doubled. The number of projects also increased by two thirds in West Asia, because auf the rise of activity in the United Arab Emirate. Which is now the fourth largest recipient of greenfield projects in the world. [67]
Example:
Tesla Motors, which is based in the United States, purchased a plot of land measuring 864,885 square meters in Shanghai, China, with the aim of constructing a new gigafactory. The new factory will have a production capacity of 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year for the local market, thanks to a $5 billion investment. However, this capacity is expected to double in the future. [19]
Brownfield investment
Another way of entering into new markets would be through acquisition. Here, one company takes control of another company and all of its workplaces, employees and processes. Acquisition is therefore characterized by a purchase or a lease of an existing company.
Oftentimes, acquired firms are extensively restructured, meaning processes are adapted to those of the investors company. They might also train their employees according to the training methods of the parent company [11]
Facilitates speedy entry of the local market and access to resources.
Attractive if local resources are necessary. [8]
Example:
Vodafone, a London based communications company, that acquired a controlling interest in Hutchison Essar, a Mumbai-based company, for $10.9 billion in cash in 2007. This allowed Vodafone to gain access to the rapidly growing Indian telecommunications market, which was adding more than six million new subscribers per month at the time. [20]
Brownfield M&A (Mergers & Acquisations)
is a specific part of brownfield investments, focused on entry strategies involving acquisations and mergers. [58]
A Merger is an additional type of FDI where two existing companies agree to unite themselves into one company. This allows companies to expand their reach and market share. [55]
Example: One famous example for a merger, is the merge between Activision, Inc. and Vivendi Games, which lead to the founding of Activision Blizzard, Inc. in 2008. [56]
Possibilities of Global Collaboration: Types of FDI by Nature of Ownership
Collaborations, often known as international partnerships or international strategic alliances, are essentially joint ventures between two or more companies. They assist businesses in overcoming the typically significant risks and expenses associated with completing international projects that may be beyond the capability of any single firm functioning alone. To complete large-scale initiatives such as inventing new technologies or finishing huge enterprises such as power plants, companies sometimes create partnerships. By working together, the focal firm can access a variety of complementary technologies that are only available from other companies, allowing it to innovate and produce new goods. These benefits assist to explain why these types of partnerships have become so common in recent decades. Although collaborative ventures can take place in each level of a value chain, the three most important activities subjected to collaboration are
R&D
Manufacturing
Marketing.
Let’s take as an example high tech sectors such as telecommunication and microprocessors, firms combine their competences, resources and capabilities in order to project a new technology or product. [2]
Basically, international collaborative ventures can be of two types, equity joint ventures and project based, non-equity ventures. [2]
Equity joint venture
An equity joint venture is a type of joint venture in which two or more parties create a separate legal company that serves as a vehicle for the implementation of the project. This new company is usually located in the same country as one of the two partner companies, with the purpose of mutually establishing a business with its own objectives: marketing and distribution, research, production, etc. The joint venture contract establishes all the necessary agreements to start and operate the joint venture. Joint Ventures are normally formed when no one party possesses all the assets needed to exploit an available opportunity. In a typical international deal, the foreign partner contributes capital, technology, management expertise, training or some type of product. The local partner contributes the use of its factory or other facilities, knowledge of the local language and culture, market navigation know-how, useful connections to the host-country government, or lower-cost production factors such as labor or raw materials. European firms often seek joint ventures to gain access to markets in Asia. The partnership allows the foreign firm to access key market knowledge, gain immediate access to a distribution system and customers, and attain greater control over local operations. [2]
Example:
BMW, a German automaker, and Great Wall Motor, a Chinese automaker, announced in 2017 that they would form a 50/50 joint venture to produce electric vehicles in China. The joint venture, called Spotlight Auto Restricted, means to exploit the quickly developing Chinese market for electric vehicles. The joint venture is also a strategic partnership because of BMW's expertise in electric vehicle technology and Great Wall Motor's local knowledge and manufacturing capabilities. This could help both companies compete in the highly competitive Chinese electric vehicle market. [22]
Project-based, non-equity venture
Project-based, non-equity ventures are based on a partnership in which businesses collaborate on a project with a limited scope and a well-defined timeline without incorporating a new legal entity. The project-based, nonequity venture is becoming more common in cross-border business. The partners pool their skills, resources, and competencies to work on innovative technologies or goods until the venture bears fruit or they no longer value collaboration. The most important difference from equity joint ventures is that no new legal entity is created, partners carry on their activities within the guidelines of a contract. Sometimes, some companies, not only in the high-tech sector, can go through moments of financial crisis, and fail to generate cash flow necessary to support innovation processes by investing in R&D. This is the example of Aston Martin, which having gone through a decade with a continuous negative net result, has decided to use this tool to support an important strategic lever in the automotive sector, innovation. In fact, there are several collaborations that it has decided to activate during the last decade, among these are those with FlexSys (2020) Juniper Networks and finally AMG-Mercedes benz. [2]
Consortium
is project-based, usually a nonequity venture initiated by multiple partners to fulfill a large-scaled project
typically formed with a contract that delineates the rights and obligations of each member
popular for innovation in industries such as commercial aircraft, computers, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications, where the costs of developing and marketing a new product often reach hundreds of millions of dollars and require wide expertise.
Work is allocated to the members on the same basis as profits. In a three-partner consortium, for example, if each party performs one-third of the work, then each earns one-third of the profits.
Often, several firms pool their resources to bid on a major project such as building a power plant or a high-tech manufacturing facility. Each brings a unique specialty to the project but would be unable to win the bid on its own.
No formal legal entity is created; each firm retains its individual identity. In this way, if one party withdraws, the consortium can continue with the remaining participants.
iNavSat is a consortium formed among several European firms to develop and manage Europe’s global satellite navigation system. [2]
Cross-licensing agreement
project-based, nonequity venture in which the partners agree to allow access to licensed intellectual property developed by the other on preferential terms.
Example:
Microsoft entered such an agreement with Japan’s JVC to share patented knowledge on software and other products. Two firms also might enter a cross-distribution agreement, in which each partner has the right to distribute products or services produced by the other on preferential terms. The Star Alliance is an agreement among more than 25 airlines—including Air Canada, United, Lufthansa, SAS, Singapore Airlines, and Air New Zealand—to market each other’s airline flights. [2]
MOTIVES AND FACTORS UNDERLYING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
The goeal of FDI and international collaborative ventures:
Improving the company´s worldwide competitiveness. [2]
In terms of economic motives for FDI, it should be mentioned that they are based on the expectations of gaining advantages, such are:
the creation of jobs
the increase of the amount of capital invested in the economy and the increase of government budget revenues
the access to modern management
the stimulation of domestic investments
the increase of markets and exports
the improvement of workforce’s qualification
the support of privatization and restructuring
the improvement of efficiency and competitiveness in local companies [2]
The field of FDI has been studied from an economical perspective for a long time, however, from a scientific standpoint, there is still no final unified framework when it comes to one of the most important questions - why do firms invest abroad?
The Dunning's Model, also known as the OLI eclectic paradigm, is one of the most popular models of FDI motivations.
It explains why (Ownership advantage) and how (Internalization advantage) a firm decides to become a multinational and where (Location advantage) it’s more likely to invest.
According to it, FDI occurs when a firm has all three:
O - Ownership,
L - Location,
I - Internalization Advantages. [17]
The Dunning’s framework includes four categories related to decision-making - four major motivations of multinational firms to internationalize through FDI:
Resource seeking
is related to the motives of firms to invest abroad to access specific resources or acquire them at a lower cost than they could in their home country - natural resources or raw materials, unskilled cheap labour. [4]
Market seeking
is the case when investors aim to profit from local or regional markets. Various reasons can lead to this choice:
the need to follow suppliers or customers that have built foreign manufacturing facilities
to adapt goods to local needs or tastes
to avoid the costs of serving a market from a distance
to have a physical presence on the market in order to discourage potential competitors. [4]
Efficiency seeking
is a motivation often found in the stage of maturity of the operations when foreign investors have long-term goals or want to get access to well-developed markets. They “take advantage of differences in the availability and costs of traditional factor endowments in different countries”; or “of the economies of scale and scope and of differences in consumer tastes and supply capabilities”. [21]
Strategic asset seeking
can be found when companies decide to purchase certain assets or enter into alliances in order to promote long-term strategic interests. It should be mentioned that the main source of company competitiveness is that multinational firms pursue a global or regional integration strategy and strive for ensuring competitive power in an unknown environment. FDI thereby aim at acquiring a new technological base, rather than exploiting an existing asset. [4]
It is important to emphasize that foreign direct investments do not automatically lead to all the beneficial effects mentioned above. In conclusion, FDI is not driven by a single motive, it’s most typically found as a combination of those.
In relation to the motives there are factors standing behind them when considering the attractiveness of some nations as FDI destinations. Cavusgil et al (2019) summarized them into 8 groups:
market factors (size and growth of national and regional markets)
human resource (cost, availability and productivity of skilled labour and managerial workforce)
infrastructural (cost and availability of local manufacturing, utilities and finance)
political and governmental (political stability and government interventions)
profit retention (tax system, rate of inflation)
economic (cost of land and facilities, currency stability)
legal and regulatory (FDI regulations, intellectual property protection, trade barriers)
Which countries are the best in attracting FDI?
The most attractive countries attracting FDI are those having growing economies (devloping countries).
In these countries a lot of attention is given to research and education: Thereby it is possible to get significant cost advantages for materials, labor and construction of new infrastructre.
The decision of many multinational companies to invest becomes determined by the ability of creation and technological innovation.
Governments also seek to attract foreign direct investment in order to implement policies aimed at boosting innovation systems and technology transfer.
Future outlook: It is expected that the decisive role in attracting foreign direct investment will be taken by the combination between localisation and th existence of technological capacity.
Image 9: Average FDI-level effective tax rates of lare MNEs
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2022_en.pdf
Example of the CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) and FDI
During a period of 45 years or more, CEE countries were isolated from the rest of the world trying to develop cohesion and interdependence with each other. These countries are under a process of transformation from centrally planned command economies towards market orientation as they want to benefit from globalization.
The globalization of the world economy has a positive impact on the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) and in the meantime, the inflows of FDI are of crucial importance for a reintegration of CEE economies.
Foreign investors can potentially benefit from accessing new markets, the acquisition of key assets at a lower cost, such as labor or raw materials. For host governments, foreign investment offers the potential for hard currency cash generation. Host companies may also seek inward investment to achieve domestic and international competitive advantage, create conditions for market-led economies and strengthen the global position of CEE companies.
Economic and political instability together with often complex privatization practices in CEE make FDI particularly challenging. Therefore, as in all countries, it is not ensured that motives for choosing FDI as a main strategy will be achieved. It is also not certain that FDI ventures will meet the expectations of the host governments and companies. Hence, it is critically important to consider the motives of the three main actors involved in the process (foreign investor, host government, and host enterprise) and to identify the degree to which they can be achieved. [3],[4],[7],[9]
BENEFITS AND WEAKNESSES OF FDI
Because of the ongoing globalization, more and more organizations in the world are willing to internationalize and make the company's products and services suitable for selected foreign markets. After identifying the attractive regions, the company may choose FDI as a main strategy. When the headquarter decides to invest in a new country, there are of course a number of opportunities that can open for the business, but there are also several challenges and dangers that have to be considered before investing. In the following chapter we will discuss and evaluate the main benefits, as well as disadvantages and risks associated with FDI.
Benefits
Economic and Employment Boost
As investors establish new businesses in other countries, FDI can contribute significantly to a country’s economic growth. FDI stimulates the manufacturing and service sectors, resulting in the creation of jobs and a reduction in the country's unemployment rate. This is one of the main reasons why a country (particularly a developing one) will seek to attract foreign direct investment. Increased employment leads to better wages and more purchasing power for the population, strengthening a country's overall economy. [2]
Example: TESLA
The leading foreign direct investor in the autombile industry is TESLA. As a result, the car manufacturer regularly creates many jobs in various parts of th world through new production facilities. The latest example is the Shanghai Gigafactory, where TESLA made several high-profil investments about 188m$. This huge invention created about 4.000 jobs. [61]
Reduced Costs
It is increasingly important for companies to control their cost structure. This can be achieved by investing in countries that provide specific comparative advantages - lower cost for materials, labor and construction of new infrastructure. Another reason is that foreign investors receive tax incentives that are very beneficial regardless of your selected field of business. That is why a lot of organizations decided to invest in the last 20 years in Eastern Europe - Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Czech Republic have been the most popular destinations of FDI inflows. The main reason is that the costs of raw materials, wages and establishing infrastructure are lower than in other European countries. [14]
Example: Nike
An example of a company that uses Foreign direct invstment to reduce its costs is Nike. The international sportswear manufaturer has used FDI a lot in the past to optimise its supply chain or production processes. To minimise these costs they opened production facilities in lower developed countries, like India. As a resut they benefit of cheap production resources. This enables them to remain competitive on the international market with low prices. [62]
Technology and Resource Transfer, Increase in Exports
Companies can obtain many advantages from locating at the center of leading-edge knowledge and innovation for their industry. By doing so, the firms are able to have a presence in an important technological cluster promoting the improvement of its know-how and development of new technologies and finally the establishment of collaborative networks that are stimulated by geographical proximity. Many FDI produced goods are exported rather than consumed domestically. The creation of 100% export oriented units helps to assist FDI investors in boosting exports from other countries. [14]
Human Capital Development
Recent studies have shown that between 50-70% of a company's assets are explained by non-monetary factors such as skills, competencies and training of human resources. As a result, some companies seek to internationalize through FDI in order to penetrate countries to take advantage of the skills and training of human resources. To give an example, the Oresund district (the world's largest biotech district) expands across two countries - Denmark and Sweden: innovation, human resources preparation and R & D are hereby the essential strategic aspects. [13]
Exchange Rate Stability
Inflows of FDI can also be beneficial to national economies. For example, the flow of FDI into a country translates into a continuous flow of foreign exchange, helping a country’s Central Bank to keep a strong foreign exchange reserve and hence maintain stable exchange rates. Financial inflows are especially helpful to countries with limited domestic resources and limited options for raising cash on international capital markets.
Creation of a competitive market
By facilitating the entry of foreign organizations into the domestic marketplace, FDI helps create a competitive environment and break local monopolies. A healthy competitive environment pushes firms to continuously improve their processes and product offerings, thereby fostering innovation. Consumers also gain access to a wider range of competitively priced products. [14]
The following table summarises and illustrates the advantages of FDI for the foreign investor and for the host country.
Benefits for the host country
economic growth [2]
reduction of the unemployment rate [2]
continous flow of foreign exchange [13]
creation of a competitive market [14]
access to new products [2]
rising productivity [14]
creation of jobs [2]
Benefits for the foreign direct investor
tax revenues [14]
geographical advantag through positioning near innovation hubs [14]
market expansion [2]
competitive advantage [14]
Weaknesses
Political Risks and Uncertainty
Establishing a permanent, fixed presence abroad makes the firm vulnerable to national risk and local governments' intervention. In addition to local labor practices, direct investors also must deal with local economic conditions such as inflation and recessions. [2] Political movements and changes in a country’s business environment can have a negative effect on a company's profit or other goals and hamper the investors. Moreover, constant political changes can lead to expropriation. In this case, those countries’ governments will have control over investors’ property and assets. [14]
Example: Renault and AvtoVAZ
French automaker Renault recently purchased a 25 percent stake in Russian automaker AvtoVAZ to produce Lada brand cars in Russia. However, the 40-year-old AvtoVAZ factory is plagued by inefficient operations, a slow workforce, and a history of organized crime. Business in Russia often requires paying bribes, and the country has a history of high inflation and government's interventions in the private sector. [2]
Legal risks
Legal aspects such as intellectual protection (patents, trademarks) may be of less importance in developing countries, and this can lead the company to very expensive legal procedures as a result of intellectual property theft.
Cultural risks
Firms that enter through FDI are dealing more intensely with culture and other aspects of the host country. MNEs with high-profile, visible operations are especially vulnerable to close public scrutiny of their actions. To minimize potential problems, managers often prefer investing in countries that are culturally and linguistically familiar. For example, when setting up a shop in continental Europe, U.S. firms frequently choose the Netherlands because English is widely spoken there. [2]
Example: Dolce&Gabbana (a well-known Italian fashion brand) like all other companies in this industry wanted to penetrate the world's largest market, China. However, they failed to consider the Chinese government's strict control over businesses that are attempting to enter the nation, as well as some cultural features that may offend Chinese culture and people. In 2018, their poorly conceived ad campaign insulted a whole nation. The videos showed Chinese women eating pizza and spaghetti with chopsticks, together with sexually suggestive lines in the background. From the Chinese perspective, the videos were patronizing and trivialized their culture. This series of controversial promotional videos has led to a significant drop in reputation and the cancellation of the official Dolce&Gabbana page on Weibo, the most used Social Network in China. The disaster led the Italian company not only to a huge amount of burnt investments, but at the same time to the hacker attacks coming from China and still leading to several legal disputes. [15]
Ethics and Social Responsibility
Companies that internationalize through FDI are often criticized for ethical failures and irresponsible behavior because such firms hold substantial power in the markets where they are most strongly invested. For example, some MNEs operate foreign factories under harsh working conditions, while others engage in bribery to pursue their interests. Some MNEs market defective products or employ questionable marketing practices through their foreign subsidiaries. [2]
Example: Many MNEs are currently responding to global sustainability agendas. For example, automakers such as Toyota, Renault, and Volkswagen are investing in fuel-efficient and clean technologies. Nokia is a leader in phasing out toxic materials. Dell was among the first to accept old PC hardware from consumers and recycle it for free. [2]
Example: Over the years Zara (a famous fashion brand, owned by Inditex group) has been repeatedly criticised for the exploitation of workers in conditions similar to slavery. In 2013 one of the Zara textile factories in Dhaka, Bangladesh, collapsed, resulting in at least 381 dead workers. The association Campagna Abiti Puliti (Clean Clothes Campaign) accused Inditex group of not controlling the safety conditions of the companies to which it entrusted the management of their products. Such events can lead the company not only to a serious decline in reputation (not easily recoverable over the years) but also to a great loss of shareholder value. [23]
Risks for the host country
exploitation by the investor [63]
potential fading of the local businesses [63]
environmental damage [63]
Risks fo the foreign direct investor
confrontation with political and economic instability [64]
legal procedures because of a different understanding of intellectual protection in the home country [64]
cultural and ethical challenges [64]
The disadvantages of FDI are closely linked to the factors described in the previous chapter. In conclusion, the company, when deciding to invest large sums of money abroad, must have a deep understanding of the political, legal and cultural context of the country to which the investments are destined.
DATA ANALYSIS
Inflows: Globally & in Europe
The amount of FDI inflows depends on a host of factors such as:
-availability of natural resources
-market size infrastructure
-political and general investment climate
-macro-economic stability
-investment decisions of foreign investors.
Precisely because FDI decisions are based on many variables, in times of economic turmoil we can see significant changes in inflow rates.
For instance, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic slowed existing investment projects. Also, the uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook led MNEs to suspend or delay new projects.
In 2022, global FDI flows slowed down, but new investment showed modest growth. Global FDI flows dropped by 24% in 2022, to USD 1 286 billion, after large withdrawals of capital by a telecommunication MNE operating in Luxembourg. Excluding Luxembourg, global FDI flows declined by 5% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Major FDI recipients recorded lower FDI flows in 2023, particularly China and the United States partly as a result of reduced new investment activity. Nevertheless, the top three destinations of FDI worldwide in 2023 were:
1. United States of America
2. Brazil
3. Canada and Mexico
The United States of America was also the major investor worldwide, follwed by China and Japan.
FDI inflows in OECD area increased to USD 275 billion yet they were 42% below the levels recorded in the first half of 2022 and below half year levels in 2021.
They finally switched to positive levels in Q1 2023 but then dropped by 58% in Q2. This happend because of the lower equity inflows and reinvested earnings. This also shows that the new investment activities will continue to slow down. [33]
The FDI flows into non-OECD G20 economies dropped by 15% in the first half of 2023. They decreased by 13% in Q1 and by a further 27 % in Q2. [33]
Outflows: Globally & in Europe
FDI outflow, as the total value of outward direct investment made by the residents of the domestic country or reporting economy to businesses based in foreign economies, also faced a lot of changes during the pandemic.
The data on global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) outflows shows that in the first quarter of 2023, global FDI flows tripled from very low levels recorded in Q4 2022, reaching USD 440 billion. However, on a year-on-year basis, global FDI flows remained 25% below the level recorded in Q1 2022. The top sources of FDI outflows worldwide were the United States (USD 110 billion), Germany (USD 57 billion) and China (USD 50 billion).
As for the European Union (EU), in August 2023, EU Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased by 270.3 USD million, compared with an increase of 21.1 USD billion in the previous month.
The top 3 sources of FDI outflows worldwide in the first quarter of 2023:
1 The United States (USD 110 billion)
2 Germany (USD 57 billion)
3 China (USD 50 billion)
October 2023 update:
Global FDI flows rebounded to USD 727 billion in the first half of 2023 but remained 30% below the levels recorded in the first half of 2022. Much of the increase came in the first quarter of 2023, whereas global FDI flows dropped by 44% in Q2 2023, compared to the previous quarter.[59]
USD bn
Image 12: FDI in figures https://www.oecd.org/investment/statistics.htm
TRENDS BY TYPE AND SECTOR
In 2022, international project finance deals and cross-border M&As were affected by the war in Ukraine, deteriorating financing conditions and uncertainty in financial markets. The value of project finance deals fell by 25 per cent and cross-border M&A sales by 4 per cent. The number of net cross-border M&As also fell by 9 per cent, while the number of project finance deals rose by 8 per cent. In contrast, announced greenfield projects rose by 15 per cent due to continued momentum in the first part of the year. The value of projects increased by 64 per cent because of several megaprojects. [67]
Greenfield investment trends
In 2022, the value of announced greenfield investment projects rose by 64 per cent to $1.2 trillion – the second highest level recorded since 2008. It more than doubled in developing economies to $573 billion (with project numbers up 37 per cent) and rose by 37 per cent in developed countries (with project numbers up 4 per cent). The sectoral distribution of greenfield megaprojects announced in 2022 illustrates key trends in cross-border investment. Of the 10 largest announced projects, 3 were in semiconductors, in response to global shortages and supply chain restructuring trends, and 5 were in renewables. [67]
International project finance trends
In 2022, the number of international project finance deals rose by 8 per cent, but their value was 25 per cent lower than in 2021. International project finance in renewable energy, which has accounted for much of the growth in project finance in recent years, slowed down. While the number of deals remained stable, values fell by almost 30 per cent to $368 billion. Large projects included the $15 billion construction of floating marine wind farms in Italy by Falck Renewables (Italy) and Bluefloat Energy (Spain), and the construction of a 4,000 MW offshore wind power plant in Binh Thuan, Viet Nam by AES (United States) for $13 billion. [67]
Crossborder M&As 2023
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in 2022 declined by 12 per cent to $1.3 trillion, after nosediving in 2020 and rebounding in 2021.1 The multitude of crises and challenges on the global stage – the war in Ukraine, high food and energy prices, risks of recession and debt pressures in many countries – negatively affected global FDI. International project finance values and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) were especially shaken by stiffer financing conditions, rising interest rates and uncertainty in financial markets. The value of international project finance deals fell by 25 per cent in 2022, while cross-border M&A sales were 4 per cent lower.
The global environment for international business and cross-border investment remains challenging in 2023. Although the economic headwinds shaping investment trends in 2022 have somewhat subsided, they have not disappeared. Commodity prices that rose sharply with the war in Ukraine have tempered, but the war continues, and geopolitical tensions are still high. Recent financial sector turmoil in some developed countries adds to investor uncertainty. In developing countries, continuing high debt levels limit fiscal space. UNCTAD expects the downward trend of global FDI to continue in 2023.
Early indicators confirm the negative FDI outlook: FDI project activity in the first quarter of 2023 shows that investors are uncertain and risk averse. According to preliminary data, the number of international project finance deals in the first quarter of 2023 was down significantly; cross-border M&A activity also slowed.[65]
Crossborder M&A trends
Cross-border M&A sales reached $707 billion in 2022 – down 4 per cent (table I.7). In manufacturing, cross-border M&As fell by 42 per cent to $142 billion, while deals targeting services decreased slightly, by 5 per cent, to $442 billion. In the primary sector, M&A values more than quadrupled to $122 billion, breaking the decade-long downward trend. After the rise in value in 2021, M&A sales in pharmaceuticals fell by 51 per cent to $36 billion, while the number of deals dropped by 22 per cent to 169. The largest deal of the year was recorded in the pharmaceutical industry: the $11 billion acquisition of Vifor Pharma (Switzerland) by CSL Behring (Australia) and the purchase of the biosimilars business of Viatris (United States) by Biocon Biologics (India) for $3.3 billion. [67]
Comparing Crossborder M&As to 2022
Completed cross-border M&As deal values in AE fell by 18% in 2022, compared to unprecedented levels in 2021. The number of deals concluded also decreased by 8%, continuing on a downward trend. These declines in both deal values and numbers worsened after the beginning of the year, possibly reflecting higher inflation, rises in interest rates, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties (expand image 9 below). Completed M&A deal values in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) increased by 13% in 2022, while the number of completed deals decreased by 2%.
Amid a tighter financial environment, continued geopolitical tensions and a gloomy economic outlook, cross-border M&A activity continued to decline in AE and EMDE in the first quarter of 2023. The drop was mostly felt in EMDE, where deal values fell by 57% from the previous quarter.
Much of cross-border M&A activity in the second half of the year was driven by some large deals. These include the acquisition of Swedish Match (Sweden) by Philip Morris International (Switzerland) in the consumption sector; in the healthcare sector, Vifor Pharma (Switzerland) acquired by CSL Ltd (Australia), a biotechnology company; Norton LifeLock Inc (United States), in the technology sector, acquiring Avast PLC (United Kingdom), a London-based software publisher; or the acquisition of Meggitt PLC (United Kingdom) by Parker Hannifin Corp (United States), in the aerospace industry.
The slowdown in dealmaking in 2022 was felt across all sectors, but particularly in healthcare, where completed M&As deal values were 47% down from 2021, technology (-32%) and discretionary consumption (-20%). Basic metals was the only sector that continued to record a growth in 2022, with overall deal values nearly twice the size of those concluded the year before.
Cross-border deal making activity is also fairly concentrated in a handful of countries. Nearly half of total M&A deal values in 2022 targeted just five economies (the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia, the Netherlands and Sweden); and the top three (ultimate) investing economies (the United States, Australia and Canada) accounted for 46% of all deal values in 2022. [33]
Greenfield Investment Trends 2023
A few countries have registered more greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements in the first eight months of 2023 than any previous calendar year on record due to projects in the electric vehicle (EV), semiconductor and energy sectors.
Morocco was the top outperforming FDI destination. In 2023, the Kingdom has so far attracted almost $34bn worth of greenfield FDI projects, double the previous all-time high of $15.8bn set in 2008, according to FDI Markets.
The North African country has seen an influx of inward investment from Chinese companies, particularly in the electric vehicle(EV) supply chain. It has also attracted major FDI projects in renewable energy, chemicals and tourism.
Notably, Chinese battery maker Gotion High-Tech has signed an agreement with Morocco’s government to establish its first African gigafactory in the country. Zhejiang-based mining giant Huayou Cobalt also plans to invest Dh200bn ($19.5bn) into a EV battery components factory.
Malaysia was the second outperforming country with about $28bn worth of FDI projects in 2023, more than double the annual average recorded in the decade before the pandemic.[66]
Comparing Greenfield Investment Trends to 2022
Total capital expenditure increased by 44% in advanced economies (AE) and doubled in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) compared to 2021, although the number of projects grew more modestly and remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Capital expenditure increased in all sectors: manufacturing (75%), services (35%) and infrastructure (47%) (expand for image 8). Investor sentiment was high, with large projects also in the extractive industries, which saw an eight-fold increase.
Greenfield investment (GI) activity shows a geographical concentration. In 2022, the top three sources of GI were the United States, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates, together contributing to a third of all announced GI capital expenditure; the United States, Egypt, the United Kingdom, India and Australia were the most targeted economies by investors and accounted for 43% of total capital expenditure. China, the fifth major destination targeted by investors in 2021, received less projects in 2022, possibly in response to a variety of factors, including prolonged COVID-19 restrictions, supply chains disruptions and increasing geopolitical concerns; the number of announced GI projects and capital expenditure in China declined, respectively, by 24% and 44%, sinking below pre-pandemic levels (by 13% and 48%, respectively). [33]
INTERNALIZATION TRENDS OF THE LARGEST MNES
The degree of internationalization – the ratio of foreign over total assets, sales and employment – of the top 100 MNEs remained stable in 2022.
High energy prices boosted revenues of companies in oil and gas, commodity trading and utilities, but this did not translate into higher overseas investment.
On the contrary:
Chevron and Exxon (both United States) and SaudiAramco (Saudi Arabia) divested foreign assets while increasing domestic investment.
European energy companies, including Shell (United Kingdom), BP (United Kingdom) and TotalEnergies (France), continued their divestment of fossil fuel assets.
Equinor (Norway) was the exception; it increased investment both domestically and overseas to provide gas supplies to Europe.
OMV (Austria) and Repsol (Spain) did not significantly change the level or the geographic distribution of their assets.
Utility MNEs also enjoyed high revenues but were cautious in investing in new overseas projects, discouraged by government measures to shield consumers from higher energy bills, discussions on taxing windfall profits and the general geopolitical uncertainty.
Image 22: Internationalization statistics of the 100 largest non-financial MNEs, worldwide and from developing economies
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Example:
Despite having a profitable year, Enel (Italy) launched a large asset sale plan (in Latin America, Greece, Spain and Australia) to reduce its debt. RWE (Germany) continued its restructuring to become a renewable-energy-only company, shedding some foreign assets.[57]
In the automotive sector most of the top 100 MNEs enjoyed an increase in revenues and invested overseas in new ventures, often to integrate the supply chain of their electric vehicle production or to expand production capacity.
Example:
GM (United States) has invested heavily in lithium extraction and refining activities, both domestically and in South America. BMW (Germany) expanded its electric vehicle production facilities in China. In pharmaceuticals several top MNEs restructured, unwound R&D investments or sold business units. Four – GlaxoSmithKline (United Kingdom), J&J (United States), Sanofi (France) and Novartis (Switzerland) – completed or announced important spinoffs. The largest of these operations involved GlaxoSmithKline spinning off its consumer health care business (jointly owned with the United States MNE Pfizer) to create a new company called Haleon, focused solely on vaccines and prescription drugs. [57]
In the tech industry, only semiconductor MNEs (Intel and Micron Technology, both United States) significantly increased their overseas investment.
Global competition and geopolitical tensions pushed the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (Taiwan Province of China) to start setting up semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the United States, in Japan and possibly in Europe. Until 2020, it had off-island production facilities only in China and its foreign long-term assets were below $2 billion; at the end of 2022, its foreign assets had already more than quadrupled, to $8.5 billion.
Other top MNEs in the technology sector did not expand their operations abroad, although their revenues continued to grow in 2022. All major United States tech companies :
Alphabet, Microsoft
Apple
Amazon
These 3 companies shifted their operational footprint to the domestic market, reducing foreign assets.
Asian MNEs:
Tencent (China)
Hon Hai (Hong Kong, China)
Huawei (China)
Samsung (Republic of Korea)
Sony (Japan)
also reduced their foreign assets relative to domestic assets[57].
INFLUENCE OF COVID-19 ON FDI (European Union Perspective)
Covid-19, the global pandemic that probably started in the country of the "factories of the world", had a considerable impact on the world economy. Foreign direct investment has obviously not been spared. The European Union, a single market between an international economic organization and a federation, has been challenged by this health crisis.
The main purpose of this introduction is to provide readers with a perspective on the impact of the pandemic on foreign direct investment in the European Union. To this end, this preamble will discuss the EU's response, the policy measures put in place and their potential long-term impacts.
The first wave of the virus had a strong impact on the economy of the European Union as well as the rest of the world economy, resulting in a decrease in foreign direct investment.
Why such a decrease?
Well, a pandemic is a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, which until now has been little considered in the scenarios of foreign investors, so it has caused confusion and a form of uncertainty. If we add this phenomenon to other consequences of the virus such as supply chain problems and a drop in demand. [32] Faced with these threats directly impacting its economy, the European Union has reacted with policy measures aimed not at totally nullifying the economic consequences of the pandemic, but simply at reducing its effects. The most symbolic and notable measures were the European Recovery Plan and the European Next Generation Fund. The objective of these two measures was to stimulate economic recovery (within the EU) and to support the member countries. [24]
Nevertheless, thanks to very specific sectors such as those related to new technologies and renewable energies, foreign investments have started to increase again. [31]
Another interesting development in terms of FDI in the European Union, thanks to the health crisis, is the acceleration of the digital transformation of the European territory. This has influenced the investment strategies of foreign investors. Although the pandemic no longer has a direct impact on the European territory, the virus will continue to impact the economic trajectory of the European Union and therefore foreign investments thanks to the indirect consequences of the pandemic.
Research on the influence of Covid on FDI in the EU has the advantage of providing a better understanding of the specific economic resistance of the EU, an observation of the effectiveness of the political measures put in place in the european union (in the short and medium term, the long term not being accessible for the time being in 2023), as well as on the evolution of foreign direct investment. These results could be useful in other crisis contexts and for other economic regions, allowing us to understand all the opportunities and threats.
The First Effects of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment in the European Union
The spread of the coronavirus has had a profoundly negative impact on the world economy, illustrated in the European Union by an increased drop in foreign direct investment. This is the result of several indirect consequences of this health crisis, such as economic contractions, difficulties related to the supply chain and finally the irregular impact of this crisis on several industries.
The health policy implemented by many member states within the European Union, embodied in temporary confinements and the promotion of social distancing, has resulted in a decline in economic activity throughout the area. In concrete terms, this was illustrated by a contraction of approximately 6.2% of the gross domestic product in the European Union. [28] Faced with an economic decline within the European Union and also on the world stage, uncertainties about the possible developments of the coronavirus, this has led to a decrease in investments, embodied by postponements or cancellations, causing a decline in foreign direct investment. [32]
Image 23:https://www.argumentum.al/en/the-future-of-the-eu-one-block-or-two-block-eu/
The pandemic has indeed redefined investment priorities within the European Union:
The health crisis highlighted global supply chain vulnerabilities, impacting European companies’ performance and capabilities.
The pandemic accentuated European companies’ dependence on global value chains, particularly the dependence of European states on China.
This context created an unfavorable environment for foreign direct investment, forcing European companies to review their investment strategies. This led to prioritization, postponement, and even cancellation of investments.
The crisis had an uneven impact on the economy and foreign direct investment. While the impact was globally negative for all sectors, it was nuanced and uneven.
Sectors such as automotive, tourism, hotel, aviation and retail were particularly affected due to sanitary measures like lockdowns, travel restrictions, and a general decline in consumption.
In contrast, sectors like the pharmaceutical sector, the health sector, and the new technology sector were able to take advantage of the opportunities generated by the health crisis and experienced increased investment during the pandemic.
So, it can be said that the pandemic has led to a shift in investment priorities within the European Union, with some sectors experiencing a decline in investment, while others have seen an increase.[30]
Image 24: EU budget 2021-2027 and recovery plan
The European Union's Reaction to the Crisis
To address the pandemic and its economic challenges, the European Union has put in place initiatives and measures to mitigate the effects on member states and their industries. As mentioned earlier in this analysis, the main measures of the European Union are the European Recovery Plan and the "Next Generation EU" fund, a targeted financial aid; but it is also important to highlight the role of the European Central Bank.
The plan had a primary objective to provide assistance to member states to mitigate the negative economic impacts of the pandemic and to revive their economies post-pandemic by promoting the energy transition:
The plan directed investments towards the digital sector and the energy transition, emphasizing the idea of a greener Europe.
It allocated resources to specific sectors such as health, employment, and social protection, providing protection to their populations, influencing the development strategy, and promoting the image of a social Europe.
By allocating resources to business and energy transition, the EU not only protected the industry of its member states but also promoted a low-carbon European industry.
This plan reflects the EU’s commitment to both economic recovery and sustainable development.[27]
Image 25: The EU's emergency response to the Covid-19 pandemic
The Next Generation Recovery Fund has been designed as a temporary support tool for the European Union's economy, its action is part of the European Recovery Plan and not separate from it. The fund is endowed with a liquidity reserve of 750 billion euros in order to revive the economy of the European Union area. [27] The specificity of the fund's action is reflected in its objective of targeted investment to mitigate the effects of the crisis on key sectors and to provide protection against other potential future crises. The vast majority of the fund, 672.5 billion euros out of the 750 billion to be precise, is intended to be distributed in the form of grants and loans to member states. This leaves a great deal of freedom in the implementation of objectives and reforms to the member states. [27]
As indicated in the previous sub-section, the European Union has provided support to member states and sectors through various targeted initiatives to address the economic consequences of the health crisis. This support has taken the form of several financial mechanisms:
the Coronavirus Investment Initiative
the European Structural and Investment Fund
the Pan-European Investment Fund
Although other financial mechanisms have been put in place, but these are the most notable [27] These financial mechanisms have been targeted support as previously mentioned, targeting in priority the health and tourism sectors, with support directed towards small and medium-sized enterprises, so not all European industries have been helped during this period and the European Union has established a prioritization. The objective of these financial mechanisms set up by the European Union was to help these small structures to hold the economic shock and to adapt to their new economic environment.
The European Commission was not the only institution of the European Union that played an active role in protecting the economy of the European Union, the European Central Bank had a leading role in managing the crisis. Its action was embodied in an initiative called the Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Program.
The program was launched in March 2020, it took the form of a monetary fund of 1,850 billion euros, its planned activation period was two years. [29] This plan was intended to support the liquidity of the market, to ensure the smooth transition of the monetary policy set by the central bank, and finally to maintain all sectors of the economy (of the European Union area). Compared to the bank loans mentioned earlier, through refinancing operations, the European Central Bank provided support not only to European companies but also to European households. [29]
Image 26: Value of the Next Generation European Union (NGEU) Coronavirus (COVID-19) recovery fund in 2020, by program (in billion euros)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1134911/eu-coronavirus-recovery-fund/
Sectoral Recovery and New Investment Prospects
The European Union, through its economic measures, has encouraged a post-pandemic rebound. A rebound that is uneven across sectors but represents opportunities for investors. Indeed, the sectors of digital transition, technology, green energy, health, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure and transportation are experiencing some growth and therefore represent opportunities for foreign direct investment. [31]
During the health crisis, the European economy saw its digital transformation accelerate. This transformation of the European economy has led to an increase in foreign direct investment.[31]
With global warming becoming a crucial issue in the European Union, the renewable energy sectors have become key investment areas. This strategy of the European Union on green and sustainable energy stimulates foreign direct investment in these sectors.[53]
The health sector and the pharmaceutical industry have been at the center of attention during the pandemic, revealing their strategic aspect. This trend is expected to continue as the European Union continues to invest in health-related areas to strengthen the health system in the face of future crises.[30]
Infrastructure and transportation are also key sectors and have seen increased investment. This European will to develop and modernize infrastructure at the European Union level represents an opportunity for foreign direct investment in the infrastructure and transport sectors. An opportunity for regional economic development in the medium and long term.[27]
Foreign Direct Investment Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-Pandemic Environment
Now that the European Union is in a post-pandemic period, obtaining foreign direct investment will become a crucial issue for the European Union to ensure its economic development. The context of economic recovery and the European Union's strategy creates a situation that combines both challenges and opportunities for foreign direct investment, influenced by various factors such as:
policy changes
regulatory frameworks
investment in innovation
digitization
geopolitical considerations.
For foreign direct investment within the European Union, the economic recovery represents an opportunity to invest in growth sectors such as green energy, digital transformation and infrastructure. [27](The recovery is uneven and affects member states and industries differently).
Under the impetus of the European Union and the pandemic context, numerous political and regulatory changes are directly affecting foreign direct investment strategies. To illustrate this point, the European Union's orientation and its action plan in this area, known as the "Green Deal", have enabled the emergence of new investment opportunities in green technologies and sustainable industry. [53] On the other hand, this regulation can also create obstacles, as illustrated by the monitoring of foreign direct investment in certain sectors considered strategic.[30]
The drive to bring digital transformation to the European Union's economy is an opportunity for foreign direct investment strategies targeting innovative and digital industries. The European Union, by defining priority sectors and areas for development, is making them more attractive to foreign direct investment. In connection with digitization and innovation, many sectors are highlighted, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things or biotechnology. [27] However, this attractiveness for foreign direct investment in these sectors is a source of competition among member states that have established as their objective the digital development of their economy and innovation.
The last factor impacting foreign direct investment strategies within the European Union's economic space is geopolitical considerations and regional competition.
The pandemic has revealed the weaknesses of the European economy in terms of supply chain.
In this post-pandemic period, reducing dependence on traditional supply chains and developing regional integration represent investment opportunities. [30] But the international context characterized by Sino-American tensions and the war in Ukraine have created investment uncertainties and negatively impacted foreign direct investment in the European Union.
Thanks to its own strategies and characteristics, the European Union is attractive to foreign direct investment in this post-pandemic period. European Union initiatives such as the European green deal and its investment in the digital transformation of the European economy provide an environment for foreign investors. [53] But the situation is not smooth and without challenges, all in a complex international context creating constraints to investment.
In conclusion, COVID-19 has had a revolutionary impact on FDI in the European Union, with the region's response and recovery efforts playing a crucial role in shaping the future investment environment. Fostering resilience and capitalizing on new possibilities in the post-pandemic era will be critical for the European economy's continuing performance and the region's appeal to international investment.
The Next Generation Recovery Fund has been designed as a temporary support tool for the European Union's economy, its action is part of the European Recovery Plan and not separate from it:
The fund is endowed with a liquidity reserve of 750 billion euros in order to revive the economy of the European Union area.
The specificity of the fund’s action is reflected in its objective of targeted investment to mitigate the effects of the crisis on key sectors and to provide protection against other potential future crises.
The vast majority of the fund, 672.5 billion euros out of the 750 billion to be precise, is intended to be distributed in the form of grants and loans to member states. This leaves a great deal of freedom in the implementation of objectives and reforms to the member states.
The European Union has provided support to member states and sectors through various targeted initiatives to address the economic consequences of the health crisis. This support has taken the form of several financial mechanisms, specifically the Coronavirus Investment Initiative, the European Structural and Investment Fund, and the Pan-European Investment Fund.
The European Commission was not the only institution of the European Union that played an active role in protecting the economy of the European Union, the European Central Bank had a leading role in managing the crisis. Its action was embodied in an initiative called the Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Program. The program was launched in March 2020, it took the form of a monetary fund of 1,850 billion euros, its planned activation period was two years.
Covid-19, the global pandemic that probably started in the country of the "factories of the world", had a considerable impact on the world economy. Foreign direct investment has obviously not been spared. The European Union, a single market between an international economic organization and a federation, has been challenged by this health crisis.
The main purpose of this introduction is to provide readers with a perspective on the impact of the pandemic on foreign direct investment in the European Union. To this end, this preamble will discuss the EU's response, the policy measures put in place and their potential long-term impacts.
The first wave of the virus had a strong impact on the economy of the European Union as well as the rest of the world economy, resulting in a decrease in foreign direct investment.
Why such a decrease?
Well, a pandemic is a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, which until now has been little considered in the scenarios of foreign investors, so it has caused confusion and a form of uncertainty. If we add this phenomenon to other consequences of the virus such as supply chain problems and a drop in demand. [32] Faced with these threats directly impacting its economy, the European Union has reacted with policy measures aimed not at totally nullifying the economic consequences of the pandemic, but simply at reducing its effects. The most symbolic and notable measures were the European Recovery Plan and the European Next Generation Fund. The objective of these two measures was to stimulate economic recovery (within the EU) and to support the member countries. [24]
Nevertheless, thanks to very specific sectors such as those related to new technologies and renewable energies, foreign investments have started to increase again. [31] Another interesting development in terms of FDI t in the European Union, thanks to the health crisis, is the acceleration of the digital transformation of the European territory. This has influenced the investment strategies of foreign investors. Although the pandemic no longer has a direct impact on the European territory, the virus will continue to impact the economic trajectory of the European Union and therefore foreign investments thanks to the indirect consequences of the pandemic.
Research on the influence of Covid on FDI in the EU has the advantage of providing a better understanding of the specific economic resistance of the EU, an observation of the effectiveness of the political measures put in place in the european union (in the short and medium term, the long term not being accessible for the time being in 2023), as well as on the evolution of foreign direct investment. These results could be useful in other crisis contexts and for other economic regions, allowing us to understand all the opportunities and threats.
The First Effects of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment in the European Union
The spread of the coronavirus has had a profoundly negative impact on the world economy, illustrated in the European Union by an increased drop in foreign direct investment. This is the result of several indirect consequences of this health crisis:
economic contractions
difficulties related to the supply chain
finally the irregular impact of this crisis on several industries.
The health policy implemented by many member states within the European Union, embodied in temporary confinements and the promotion of social distancing, has resulted in a decline in economic activity throughout the area. In concrete terms, this was illustrated by a contraction of approximately 6.2% of the gross domestic product in the European Union. [28] Faced with an economic decline within the European Union and also on the world stage, uncertainties about the possible developments of the coronavirus, this has led to a decrease in investments, embodied by postponements or cancellations, causing a decline in foreign direct investment. [32]
Global supply chain vulnerabilities have been highlighted by the health crisis (well illustrated by microprocessor supply issues between 2021 and 2022). Suppliers and transportation networks affected by the pandemic have impacted European companies and more specifically their performance and capabilities. Thus, a form of dependence of European companies on global value chains (perfectly embodied by the dependence of European states on China) have been accentuated by the health crisis. [30] This context has created an unfavorable environment for foreign direct investment, forcing European companies to review their investment strategies by establishing priorities in order to secure their position at the expense of potential developments. This has resulted in prioritization, postponement and even cancellation.
Like any crisis, this one has had an uneven impact on the economy. The same is true for foreign direct investment. Although the impact was globally negative for all sectors, it was nuanced and uneven. Sectors that were particularly affected:
analysis
the automotive
tourism
hotel
aviation
retail
Why these sectors?
Because of sanitary measures such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, as well as a general decline in consumption. [30]
Other sectors, in contrast, were able to take advantage of the opportunity generated by the health crisis, such as:
the pharmaceutical sector
the health sector
the new technology sector
These sectors experienced increased investment during the pandemic. [30]
THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON RETAILERS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
In the European Union, the retail sector is a key sector for regional economic growth, accounting for about 4.5% of the European gross domestic product and 20 million people depend on this sector. [25] This sector, like its consumers, has evolved over the last decades, with changes resulting from new consumer needs and concerns, technological developments and the expansion of the single market.
What are the particularities of the European retail sector?
First of all, this sector is composed by a diversity of small, medium and large companies, and it offers a wide range of products to local and international consumers.
In the world's largest single market, foreign direct investment is an essential component of the development of the retail sector. These investments encouraged by the European Union. These foreign direct investments have:
created jobs in the sector
increased competition
fostered innovation
stimulated economic growth.[24]
Foreign direct investment has opened up opportunities for expansion by increasing the scope of the retail sector including opening up access to other local markets. This demonstrates the linkage and importance of foreign direct investment to the retail sector and the need for states to take it into account when designing strategy.
Factors Attracting Foreign Direct Investment in the Retail Sector of the European Union
The European Union has built a strategy of attracting foreign direct investment, the retail sector attracts many foreign direct investments. There are several reasons for this phenomenon:
The European Union has built a business-friendly environment. The World Bank ranks most member states in the top tier based on the ease of doing business criteria.
The European Union consists of 440 million consumers, making it the largest single market in the world. European consumers are diverse and have a high purchasing power.
The European Union has the competitive advantage of having a skilled and educated workforce, an attractive element for foreign investors. Another asset of Europe’s attractiveness is its high quality infrastructure.
The European Union’s unified regulatory framework and the principles of the European Union’s single market have the enormous advantage of simplifying the cross-border operations of companies operating in the single market, thereby eliminating national variations in this particular area.
Foreign Direct Investment's Advantages in the Retail Sector
The foreign direct investment is critical in the retail industry since it provides a variety of benefits that can spur growth and development. Some of these advantages will be discussed in this section.
Foreign direct investment almost always creates new employment, both directly and indirectly. When a foreign firm establishes a retail store or a franchise, it immediately produces job possibilities. These investments may indirectly help to create jobs in allied areas including logistics, real estate, and manufacturing. [38]
Through foreign direct investment, international companies have the ability to transfer technology and experience to their host countries on a regular basis. This is particularly visible in the retail sector. Advances in digital payments, inventory management, and customer relationship management have the potential to significantly improve operational efficiency and consumer experience. [39]
The presence of foreign retailers in a market (and in this case the European single market), generally increase competition in that market, which can foster innovation and improve product quality. The impact of competition is to force existing firms to innovate to maintain market share, making the retail sector more dynamic and innovative (to differentiate from competitors). This dynamism and innovation are attractive arguments for foreign direct investment. [40]
Foreign direct investment, properly invested as part of a strategy promoting logistics and transportation, can improve supply chain efficiency. Foreign traders typically bring innovative supply chain management systems, which can provide: cost savings, faster delivery times, and improved service levels. [41] Foreign traders bring innovations that can benefit the entire retail sector.
The Foreign direct investment also has the advantage of helping European companies enter new markets. Collaborations between foreign investors and European retailers also provide access to new customer bases and distribution networks, allowing them to expand their operations abroad and diversify their revenue streams. [42]
Concerns and Difficulties Affecting Foreign Direct Investment in the Retail Sector
Despite the benefits that foreign direct investment in the retail sector can bring, there are obviously a number of obstacles and challenges that are associated with it. Here are some of the challenges that illustrate the issues associated with foreign direct investment:
When multinational companies enter a new market, cultural differences can be a major obstacle. Understanding consumer behavior, tastes, and local customs is critical to retail success, so downstream research is essential to understand market characteristics (especially in a single market as unique as the European Union). Failure to adapt to the local culture can result in a mismatch with customer requirements and preferences, which is detrimental to the success of the business. [43]
Foreign direct investment can potentially have a mixed effect on domestic small and medium-sized enterprises. While such foreign direct investment can help local organizations connect to global value chains, it can also increase competitiveness at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises unable to compete with large firms. This issue presents a strong controversy in the retail sector, with small firms typically facing strong competition from international chains. [44]
Foreign investors often face regulatory barriers (despite a European regulatory policy favoring foreign direct investment in the case of the European single market) in the retail sector, which can range from strict investment laws to time-consuming licensing procedures (constituting a significant constraint). In some cases, protectionist measures may be taken to defend local firms by making it more difficult for foreign traders to enter the market (in an attempt to protect them from multinationals). [45]
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty can have a significant influence on foreign direct investment flows (as Russia has seen with the departure of Western companies). Trade wars, political unrest and political uncertainty can deter foreign investors by increasing the risk of investing in a particular country or region (the Taiwan context at the center of the Sino-U.S. conflict is a perfect example*). Foreign investors face an additional level of complexity due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts (hence the creation of companies selling information to other companies on these specific aspects, allowing them to reduce risks). [46]
Strategies for European Retailers to Maximize Foreign Direct Investment Benefits
European traders need to develop strategic measures to take full advantage of foreign direct investment (as the European Union seeks to attract such investment). Some strategies to consider include:
In order to expand, it is essential to determine which markets have the greatest potential for development for multinational retail companies. Thorough market research is necessary to understand the desires, tastes and spending patterns of customers in multiple locations. A clear understanding of market dynamics can help retailers make informed investment decisions. Therefore, it is the prerequisite for any foreign direct investment. [47]
Strategic alliances with local companies or foreign investors can be a potentially profitable strategy for European stores, a way to enter markets while limiting risks. These collaborations can lower market entry barriers, provide access to local expertise and resources, and share investment risks through the sharing of financial resources, skills and technologies. [48]
Successful foreign traders frequently adapt their products, services, and business methods to meet the needs of local markets and consumers, as each local market may have different needs for cultural and other reasons. This may involve customizing product offerings, changing pricing tactics, or implementing local business practices. Understanding local customer behavior and cultural sensitivity can be a competitive advantage in the marketplace. [49]
In the retail sector, innovation is a key driver of competitiveness, especially in this highly competitive sector. European retailers can take advantage of Foreign Direct Investment to invest in new technologies and business strategies. Investing in digital transformation efforts, e-commerce platforms, data analytics or supply chain technology are the most typical examples (especially in the EU market). These expenditures can boost operational efficiency, improve customer satisfaction, and create a competitive advantage. [50]
Foreign Direct Investment has had a tremendous impact on the European Union's retail industry. On the one hand, it has resulted in several positives such as job creation, technology and knowledge transfer, increased competitiveness, greater supply chain efficiency, and access to new markets. On the other side, it raises issues such as cultural adaptability, possible consequences on Small and medium-sized regulatory barriers, and geopolitical uncertainty.
SOURCES: LITERATURE, IMAGES & VIDEOS
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Images
Image 1: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-foreign-direct-investment-by-country/
Image 2: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD
Image 3:https://blog.investyadnya.in/what-is-foreign-direct-investment-fdi/
Image 4: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Vertical-and-Horizontal-Foreign-Direct-Investments-
Protsenko/013646c9877a93b1551b2d06cdfaf51d3c6ef6e7
Image 5: https://blog.investyadnya.in/what-is-foreign-direct-investment-fdi/
Image 6: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Image 7: https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/brownfield-investment/
Image 8: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/strategy/eclectic-paradigm/
Image 9: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2022_en.pdf
Image 10: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Image 11: https://www.oecd.org/corporate/mne/statistics.htm
Image 12: https://www.oecd.org/investment/statistics.htm
Image 13: https://www.oecd.org/corporate/mne/statistics.htm
Image 14: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Image 15: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Image 16: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_ch01_en.pdf
Image 17: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_ch01_en.pdf
Image 18: https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/FDI-in-Figures-April-2023.pdf
Image 19: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/countries-setting-new-fdi-records-in-2023-83094
Image 20: https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/FDI-in-Figures-April-2023.pdf
Image 21: https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/FDI-in-Figures-April-2023.pdf
Image 22: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_en.pdf
Image 23: https://www.argumentum.al/en/the-future-of-the-eu-one-block-or-two-block-eu/
Image 26: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1134911/eu-coronavirus-recovery-fund/
Videos
Mike Moore (GWU econ professor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NBzBS0jZkc
The Volatilian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPd2SfbFYdA
OECD Business and Finance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPumDE60IDk